Re: I think it needs to be tropical first
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/9/2010, 3:20 pm
It seems like it is close to being sub tropical to me:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/10070912/8.html
Documentation: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/help.html
I guess it would need to be on the other side of the line and it was more tropical than not before they gave it a chance.
But, that the analysis is late cycle, meaning the data is older than the early cycle models which are available faster to a forecaster. Late cycle data would not reflect some of the latest changes until hours later. The area had been developing a little more convection near the center.
It seems like they have granted invest status to less tropical entities in the past. I think I once remember they did it for what was pretty much an ULL.
The NHC's outlooks seem to indicate a 48 hour chance that something will develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or higher. I have sometimes seen them add subtropical when mentioning something not fully tropical, so I am making that assumption that it means both.
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And if anyone has comments on those percentages on their outlooks, they do have a feedback form for the graphical tropical weather outlook:
http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=gtwo
And while the percentages also appear in the regular tropical weather outlook, it would still probably be a good place to submit comments. I think I'll wait and see how they do. I would think they probably already got a lot of comments about the near 0% chance, but if they keep doing it I'll send a comment. |
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