| WDPN31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TS 03W HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A 120059Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, CONFIRMING THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HIGH SST (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ALONG THE TRACK. THE CURRENT INTENSITITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 03W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST PROG REASONING. B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SST AND OHC VALUES IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS. NEAR TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OVER LUZON INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VWS AND LOWER OHC IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE TIGHTLY GROUPED THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AT TAU 72, WITH GFS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE STR. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH (>30 KNOTS) EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR ANCHORED OVER CHINA. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK AND AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 120.// NNNN |