97L Evening Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 7/19/2010, 11:11 pm
The disturbance has become somewhat better organized during the evening. Although surface pressures have fallen slightly and low level winds remain East to Northeast, San Juan PR has been reporting light to calm winds. This could be the beginnings of a LLC forming, as a strong convective cell has been firing about 60miles NNE of San Juan for the last 5hrs. The development of this persistent convective cell where upper air data show a strong almost co-located 850,700 and 500mb vorticity are indications that a center is attempting to form. San Juan doppler showed strong radar rotation near the aforementioned area, but no surface westerly winds have been observered thus far.
The system has been influenced by a strong TUTT near 28N-65W during the day and most of the weekend. Shear induced convection has been firing since early this morning, but 00z upper air data showed decreasing shear from the DR across PR and north to 20N, values in this area have fallen to less than 10kts and bards further away indicate shear tendency decreases ffrom 10-20kts. More models are showing development during the next few days as upper ridging appears to follow 97L along its track.
Conclusion: 97L will slowly gather during the night and tomorrow and possibly becoming a TD later tomorrow or tom night. Thereafter, a slow moving TC will continue to strengthen as it tracks north of the DR and Cuba heading in the general direction of the straits or extreme SE Fl. The Keys and SE Florida should closely monitor the progress of this system. |
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97L Evening Analysis - Jake, 7/19/2010, 11:11 pm Post A Reply
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