97L Afternoon Update
Posted by
Jake on 7/21/2010, 12:55 pm
The disturbance has diminished in coverage and intensity during the overnight. There's no question that the upper level low to the NNW of the system and dry stable air have played a major factor in the formation process. In addition, the Island of Hispaniola has also been a factor by reducing low level inflow.
Lastest visible images and surface obs indicate that a LLC is forming near 22N-71W with some modest convection on the eastside of the circulation. As has been the case during the last several days, the upper level low has remained nearly stationary and thus hampered the organization of the system. Model guidance has the ULL moving westward at a faster pace than 97L as a pattern reversal evolves.
Conclusion: 97L will become TS Bonnie during the next 24-36hrs as a reversal in the upper pattern should reduce shear as a narrow upper high builds over the disturbance and moves in tandom with the TC. A slow WNW track should help the system take advantage of high oceanic heat content through the Bahamas and increase the centers co-location with convection.
Note: A more robust TC can occur if the forecasted upper high becomes well established during its track over the Bahamas; especially if strong outflow channels are in place. |
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