Eastern Atlantic Wave (Development Breakdown)
Posted by
Jake on 7/26/2010, 11:39 am
A large tropical wave is located just west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Development: The wave has several favorable factors, strong surface rotation, co-located 850-700-500mb vorticity and although its embedded in SAL mid -upper level moisture is rapping into the wind field.
Negatives: Large area of SAL ahead, shear is moderate 15-20kts from the east and no central convection.
Track: This is straight forward, a well established sub-tropical ridge should move this across the atlantic W-WNW.
Conclusion: The wave should gradually increase central convection after 50W and shear is forecast to be light-mod. However, the TUTT should not be as strong as during Bonnie once it reaches the Lessor Antilles. Think this will have a better chance than Bonnie, as the upper levels will not be as hostile. As we now move into August in a few days the african waves should become more numerous as the MJO takes hold of the basin and overall shear will lesson.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html |
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Eastern Atlantic Wave (Development Breakdown) - Jake, 7/26/2010, 11:39 am Post A Reply
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