Re: New Wave Coming Off Africa - Most Models Already on It
Posted by jrojas123 on 7/28/2010, 8:43 am
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning and tropical cyclone development is not expected for the next few days. So, if you haven't checked your hurricane supply kits and refill what is needed; do so as soon as possible. Also, go over your Hurricane Preparedness plans and know your evacuation routes.

All interests are now turning towards the long range prospects of things getting very busy in the tropical Atlantic starting next week. The GFS, Canadian and European models all forecast that Colin will form sometime next week with Danielle and Earl possibly developing during the following week (Week of August 9th).

Let's look at each model really quick: The GFS model forecasts that Colin will form east of the Lesser Antilles near 50 West Longitude on Tuesday and then pass just north of the Virgin Islands next Thursday before curving out into the open Atlantic. The GFS model also forecasts that Danielle will form near the Cape Verde Islands next Thursday or Friday before that storm is pulled out into the open Atlantic. Ultimately, the GFS model forecasts that Earl and possibly Fiona will form out in the eastern Atlantic around August 12th.

The Canadian model forecasts that Colin will develop in the eastern Atlantic near 35 or 40 West Longitude this weekend and be located near 50 West Longitude on Tuesday. Ultimately, the Canadian model forecasts that Colin will be pulled northward well east of the Lesser Antilles later next week. The Canadian model also forecasts that Danielle will form in the southwest Caribbean on Monday and track west-northwest and come ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula next Wednesday (my birthday).

The European model is pretty troubling and it's kind of hard to ignore. It forecasts that Colin will form from the tropical disturbance that is now tracking off of the coast of Africa and is located between 15 and 20 West Longitude early this morning. The Euro forecasts that Colin will develop late this weekend or early next week out near 35 or 40 West Longitude. The European model forecasts that this system will track westward and track across the Lesser Antilles (Looks like directly over Dominica and Martinique next Thursday. In 10 days or next Friday, the European model forecasts that Colin will be located in the eastern Caribbean just south of Puerto Rico.

So, it seems the bottom line is that activity will remain quiet for the next few days, but then it may ramp up pretty rapidly within the next 7 to 10 days, if not sooner. The model consensus of activity picking up in a real hurry is pretty believable to me. Rainfall total maps from Africa show that it has been pretty wet there over the last week and this is a pretty good signal that things will pick up really soon.

In conclusion, I want to strongly stress that this upcoming weekend may be the last weekend for a while without at least one named tropical system on the map. As I mentioned at the beginning of this discussion, please check and recheck your hurricane supply kits, refill what is needed. Also, go over what you will do and where you will go if you have to evacuate because of a hurricane. Enjoy this upcoming weekend, but at the same time get ready for what may be a very, very busy several weeks coming up.
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New Wave Coming Off Africa - Most Models Already on It - JAC, 7/27/2010, 8:35 am
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