What I think the NHC and Model thinking is
Posted by
Jackstraw on 8/29/2010, 11:26 pm
ATM Earl is being steered by a small mid layer ridge just to his N below 30N and a weak ULL to his NW Around Haiti which you can see here. There is a Shortwave low seen here beginning to round the southern part of the trough that Danielle is tangled up in. That's the very dry air farther to his north. This feature will begin to slow its southward progression and lift off to the NE tomorrow. As it slowly vacates there will be a weakness to Earls NW that will give his steering a more northerly component tomorrow night. Because this trough is so deep any ridging to its east will fill in slowly from the SW to the NE. This will also cause Earl to slow because steering will be there but not very strong. As he rides that weakness he should be far enough N in latitude to prevent him from tucking under the ridge over the east coast. As ridging finally begins to build back from is SE and E he will be caught in a weakness between the two. Where this weakness exactly lines up is important but the ridge to the east will be the weaker of the 2 in the short term. Finally a very fast moving 500mb trof is forecast to sweep through from the great lakes seen in the last frames here that should complete the re-curvature.
This is just my uneducated guess not an official forecast. These features are not set in stone and many are forecast more than 72 hrs out allowing for more error but it seems reasonable to me. |
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What I think the NHC and Model thinking is - Jackstraw, 8/29/2010, 11:26 pm Post A Reply
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