Hurricane and tropical storm watches issued for parts of US coast at 5PM EDT on 31st
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/31/2010, 4:51 pm
Track:

3 Day:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204314.shtml?3day?large#contents

5 Day:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204314.shtml?5day?large#contents




------------------




HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST.  EARL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




---------------------------




HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS.
THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL.  THIS SHEAR
IS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER
LOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOUR
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR
13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS
STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK
GUIDANCE.  ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW
MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS.

GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/2100Z 22.0N  68.8W   115 KT
12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.3N  70.5W   115 KT
24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.6N  72.8W   115 KT
36HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  74.5W   115 KT
48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  75.5W   115 KT
72HR VT     03/1800Z 36.0N  73.5W    95 KT
96HR VT     04/1800Z 44.0N  65.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 56.0N  55.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
97
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Hurricane and tropical storm watches issued for parts of US coast at 5PM EDT on 31st - Chris in Tampa, 8/31/2010, 4:51 pm
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