Boston NWS Discussion
Posted by
JAC on 9/1/2010, 1:20 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1119 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2010
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...HURRICANE EARL WILL BE THE
MAIN ATTRACTION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE 09Z UPDATE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE TUCKS THE STORM JUST A
BIT CLOSER TO NANTUCKET AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL EXPECT THE CENTER OF EARL TO PASS BETWEEN 75 AND 100
MILES SE OF NANTUCKET. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS REMAIN WELL
CLUSTERED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...THOUGH A FEW
MODELS HAVE DEVIATED MORE WESTWARD ON THIS PACKAGE.
WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK...COULD SEE TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AT LEAST CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY EVEN SOME
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON NANTUCKET.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST TRACK ERROR CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED PASSAGE IS STILL 2-3 DAYS AWAY...SO THE UPDATED FORECASTS
STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT
THE STORM COULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
LARGER IMPACT FARTHER INLAND.
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