Re: What about that big bucket of Dry Air out in front ??... Thoughts on that ?
Posted by JAC on 9/10/2010, 10:01 am
That LSU image is deceiving and error prone - never liked it - sorry DM.

Need to look at more on what is going on in one of those "dry" areas.

That loop is actually showing dry air in the mid to upper atmosphere, not the lower atmosphere.

MIMIC_TPW shows moisture in the lower atmosphere.

The moisture in the lower atmosphere is what fuels a TC.

Need to also look at how unstable the air is in the LSU dry-area.

LI and CAPE can tell you what is going on with stability there.

Finally, have to look if the dry area is actually associated with a lowering of the tropopause.

If the tropopause is lower there, then that would weaken a TC.

So, if the LSU "dry" area is only associated with just dry air at mid-layers then it may not be too bad.

If there is good lower atmosphere moisture, unstable air, and tropopause is high enough; then Igor should do OK and actually push if out of the way.


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Igor getting act together - JAC, 9/10/2010, 7:53 am
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