Re: Morning's Spaghetti next 72 hrs
Posted by
weatherwindow on 9/10/2010, 1:09 pm
| the crux of the euro vs gfs- driven gfdl and hwrf differences is the timing and strength of the western atlantic ridge and the presence or lack of residual east coast troughiness.....the hpc discusses this in their extended forecast(9/12-9/16)...."THE NEW ECMF HAS MUDDIED THE WATER FURTHER EAST...KEEPING MUCH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST STATES, DAYS 5-7...WE REJECT NEW ECMF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DAYS 5-7. WE FAVOR KEEPING SOME KIND OF BROAD, NOT TOO DEEP TROUGH OVER OVER NERN CONUS DAYS 5-7...WE CONTINUE TO STAY WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GEFS AND ECMS(the ensemble means of both models) FOR THE WHOLE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.....this would seem to lean toward the gfdl and hwrf tracks and discard the cmc and nam as left outliers. this would fit well toward the rough spaghetti model mean of a track over hispaniola and into the old bahama channel...increasing the threat to the bahamas and sfla |
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Some improvement for 92L -
JAC,
9/10/2010, 7:37 am Post A Reply
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