Re: Is there going to be a pattern change anytime soon?
Posted by JAC on 9/13/2010, 12:19 pm
You have to look for a blocking WV pattern that is usually setup around Greenland.

Sometimes you may have heard me talk about Rex-Blocks in the winter and spring.

If that gets setup, then the weather flow across North American stalls out and no fronts get thru.

That essentially allows the Subtropical Ridge (Atlantic High Pressure) to remain intact and not erode by the fronts.

Then there is a path for African Waves to hit CONUS.

Right now there are no blocks.

Another thing you have to think about is we are coming up climologically on deep west Carib systems spinning up and moving north.

During the mid-summer, the upper atmosphere is too warm in that region to develop spontaneously.

However, early and late in the season the upper atmosphere is cooler which allows deep convection to fire up and develop into a TC.

I think there is still plenty of opportunity for a GOM system.

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Is there going to be a pattern change anytime soon? - stormlover, 9/13/2010, 11:16 am
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