Re: Tracking Maps
Posted by
TuffyE on 9/13/2010, 4:15 pm
That's such an insulting phrase to so many that are merely concerned. It's not that long ago that public disregard for the POSSIBILITIES was the big problem. At the public level, making any threat seem foolish doesn't seem wise. In the context of those with some technical knowledge of storms (NOT me), it's provocative. In the context of statistics and modeling, it's just premature. The models almost always slip west with low-latitude systems in the mid-Atlantic. I'll grant that is the case with this one less than most, but the UK has done pretty well and is likely to be accurate in a little more west than the current 4-5 day points, IMO. What's the last one with a similar track that was NOT west of it's 5-day forecast by that time? I don't have a clue, but figure it would be the exceptions. I think that's consistent with the NHC position in several regards. This one's almost certainly all wet, but that doesn't do much for Bermuda's risk.
BTW: No offense meant at all; envy your knowledge and judgement, just take my own small offense at the browbeating. You don't leave much room for discussing the details. |
163
In this thread:
Tracking Maps -
Doorman,
9/13/2010, 3:44 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.