Re: SHIP Has Karl As A Borderline Cat 3 In The BOC............
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/15/2010, 5:00 am
That's actually the no land version of the SHIPS model. Here is the 6Z forecast for 9/15:

TIME (HR)             0     6     12    18    24    36    48    60    72     84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND     55    62    68    73    79    88    95   100   101   99    96    92    88    (SHIPS)
V (KT) LAND          55    62    49    39    40    48    55    60    51    35    29    28    27    (DSHP)
V (KT) LGE mod     55    65    53    41    35    51    64    78    74    42    31    28    27    (LGEM)

From:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/10091506AL1310_ships.txt

I added to the right the model name that you will see on various sites. The no land version would be as if the Yucatan was not there.

Here is something from this presentation by Richard Pasch from the NHC about these three:
http://www.hfip.org/events/ensemble_workshop%204.10/pasch_overview_of_curren_tc_forecast_guidance.pdf

"Statistical/dynamical guidance:
- SHIPS-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme-predicts intensity change using large-scale (observed and dynamical model-predicted) and inner-core (satellite-observed) variables with a multiple-regression approach
- DSHIPS is the SHIPS model with inland decay
- LGEM-Logistic Growth Equation Model uses similar predictors as those for DSHIPS but is more sensitive to changes of these predictors over the 5-day forecast period (also more sensitive to track forecast errors)"
76
In this thread:
Karl's Green On Funktop - Target, 9/15/2010, 12:50 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.