Re: SHIP Has Karl As A Borderline Cat 3 In The BOC............
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/15/2010, 5:00 am
That's actually the no land version of the SHIPS model. Here is the 6Z forecast for 9/15:
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 73 79 88 95 100 101 99 96 92 88 (SHIPS) V (KT) LAND 55 62 49 39 40 48 55 60 51 35 29 28 27 (DSHP) V (KT) LGE mod 55 65 53 41 35 51 64 78 74 42 31 28 27 (LGEM)
From: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/10091506AL1310_ships.txt
I added to the right the model name that you will see on various sites. The no land version would be as if the Yucatan was not there.
Here is something from this presentation by Richard Pasch from the NHC about these three: http://www.hfip.org/events/ensemble_workshop%204.10/pasch_overview_of_curren_tc_forecast_guidance.pdf
"Statistical/dynamical guidance: - SHIPS-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme-predicts intensity change using large-scale (observed and dynamical model-predicted) and inner-core (satellite-observed) variables with a multiple-regression approach - DSHIPS is the SHIPS model with inland decay - LGEM-Logistic Growth Equation Model uses similar predictors as those for DSHIPS but is more sensitive to changes of these predictors over the 5-day forecast period (also more sensitive to track forecast errors)" |
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In this thread:
Karl's Green On Funktop -
Target,
9/15/2010, 12:50 am- Kickin Ass and Takin Names at Landfall - JAC, 9/15/2010, 8:37 am
- Outflow - JAC, 9/15/2010, 7:06 am
- Re: Karl's Green On Funktop - BobbiStorm, 9/15/2010, 6:54 am
- Looks like a pinhole eye on microwave - JAC, 9/15/2010, 6:45 am
- Karl Pics - Target, 9/15/2010, 1:34 am
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