Karl now a major hurricane...bearing down on the coast of Mexico
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/17/2010, 4:53 am
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.  KARL STILL HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
AFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8
KNOTS.  KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF
KARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY.
AFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  95.3W   105 KT
12HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.3W   120 KT
24HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.2W    30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



--------------------



HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL132010
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...KARL NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...BEARING DOWN ON THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INLAND OVER
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  KARL IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Karl now a major hurricane...bearing down on the coast of Mexico - Chris in Tampa, 9/17/2010, 4:53 am
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