| http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2010/09/tropical_storm_lisa_forms_but_the_area_to_watch_is.html BEYOND LISA The key concern, which I first mentioned last week, continues to be the possibility of storm development in the Caribbean Sea during the next week to 10 days. This morning the National Hurricane Center tabbed an area of disturbed weather crossing the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean Sea and said it had a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm during the next two days. Over the next five days, there's probably a considerably better chance of development. Eventually this storm is expected to track westward across the warm Caribbean Sea and possibly to turn northwest or northward into the Gulf of Mexico. ECMWF The Euro model brings a large hurricane into the Gulf late next week. Waters in the Caribbean are very warm at this time of year, and there's plenty of potential heat along the path this storm is likely to follow across the central and then perhaps Northwest Caribbean Sea. These factors all point to a significant -- though far from certain -- development. In response to the latest forecast model runs Commodity Weather Group issued a special statement on "Tropical Storm Matthew" this morning giving this storm a 60 percent chance of ultimately becoming a major hurricane. Here's their long-term forecast: I suspect there will be a lot of hype for this system and it does represent this season's first real threat of a hurricane to the northern Gulf of Mexico, including offshore rigs (fortunately the BP well is capped). However, at this point you should be informed rather than alarmed or concerned. Frankly, climatology suggests the chance of a late September or early October hurricane striking Texas is very low, so if and when Matthew develops, it's more likely the storm would hit Louisiana or points eastward if it comes into the Gulf. For now there's just absolutely no way to know. All we do know is: there's a disturbance coming into the Caribbean Sea, conditions are ripe for development, and the upper-air pattern over the next 10 days suggests the system will eventually get pulled northward toward the Gulf. Beyond that, we'll just have to watch and see what happens. |