| NWS Tallahassee, Fl.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE PERSISTENT RIDGE (CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.) TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW DIGS DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION STALLS THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AS AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST MS THIS WEEKEND. IT DOES NOT BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NEVER SEEMS TO ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ALL. THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS APPEAR WETTER THAN THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND AS THEY PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE TROPICS (CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS) THIS WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST BY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL THIS A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS MAY BE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...NOT SO MUCH BECAUSE OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THEM...BUT BECAUSE BLENDING THE GFS AND ECMWF JUST WILL NOT WORK BECAUSE THEY ARE SO DIFFERENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THE MID LATITUDES...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHETHER THIS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. |