Re: Make your Call JAC
Posted by
JAC on 9/22/2010, 4:04 pm
OK Tom - fair enough.
Best I can say at this point is too early to predict a CONUS landfall.
Best I can say is a very good chance it will be a TS at min by 80W.
I will go with the recurve to a north track in the Bay of Honduras.
It may spend a little time over Honduras itself but once back in the water it'll spin back up within 24 hrs.
I think a better than 50/50 chance will shoot the Yucatan channel and go into the GOM as a major.
Still a chance it may cross west Cuba, but with the Omega Block setup to it appears not too likely.
Once in the GOM, I can't say for sure.
Need to evaluate outflow channels then.
If the cutoff low moves east by then to off the CONUS east coast, there could be a real problem.
But, I wouldn't say anything more than that at this time; need to see how synoptics shake out over the weekend.
Trouble this thing is having is it is a top-down development which is typical for this time of year but very hard to predict as you can see by the fact the models themselves are having trouble.
The thing I see kicking down the PV to the surface is a strong anti-cyclone to the west.
Good stratiform precip is allowing solar heating of the clouds and strengthening the anti-cyclone.
That in turn will develop a surface low.
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