Re: Give it another 12hrs
Posted by Jake on 9/22/2010, 11:49 pm
DM,

Good points, however the ULL is centered NE of the surface low which helps ventilation.
And although divergence is greatest further east that's shear enhanced due to the interaction with the ULL and large scale ascent of very unstable atmosphere.

System is large and these take time, but this one is packed with energy. Once it get going my fear is this missing Nicaragua and staying away from land as seen on the lastest model 00z runs which take the system WNW- N across the NW carib.

No hype here, but see a very conducive environment in the coming days. Could be a very strong system.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
On that page in the section titled "North Atlantic Basin" look for "Early-cycle track guidance". To the right of that, click "frame 2".
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Invest or Just Plain Rain? - Doorman, 9/22/2010, 5:31 pm
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