See invest 96L very soon
Posted by
Jake on 9/26/2010, 10:11 am
Well the new system advertised by all the global models is starting to build just north of Honduras. The area is broad with with scattered large clusters of t-storms, but a large cluster has taken shape near 17N - 84W. In addition, surface pressures are around 1009mb in the area and convection is increasing. Although, upper air conditions are marginal, this will become more conducive for cyclone formation.
Models vary in strength, but if this sits over the NW caribbean for several days with extremely high OHC, this has the potential to become quite strong. Especially if the upper level high thats forecast to build over this system materializes with strong outflow channels.
Note: The high that that formed Matthew is still there, just displaced further west. The high is large and strong with good outflow channels. Matthew, couldn't take advantage of this high as he ran out of water, but the favorable conditions were seen Friday evening as he exploded over land and has maintained his status across a rough terrain.. But, the high should build across the western carib as the our next cyclone intensifies. Finally, a stationary to slow Northward motion will aid in the potential strength of the system. |
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See invest 96L very soon - Jake, 9/26/2010, 10:11 am Post A Reply
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