Re: Navy track for 96L.INVEST, ATCF
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/28/2010, 8:51 am
At 8AM EDT on 9/28...

Best Track (which could be changed if it continues to organize):

20.2N 82.8W
30 knots
1001 mb
Level of Development: Low

NHC ATWO:

"A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  ALTHOUGH THE LOWEST SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA AND GRAND
CAYMAN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS LOCATION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE
TOMORROW.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY.  INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE."

(It became 80% in a 5:10AM EDT special outlook)

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Closeup visible (Java loop):
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20.5&lon=-82.5&type=Animation&numframes=6&width=800&height=500&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=black
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Navy track for 96L.INVEST, ATCF - hanna, 9/28/2010, 8:35 am
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