Good Morning Nicole! (11AM Birth)
Posted by
Conclue on 9/29/2010, 10:58 am
000
WTNT41 KNHC 291453
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST
OF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE
CYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR
NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE
EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS
DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
PREDICTED. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND
CUBA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 22.6N 80.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 24.7N 79.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 29.4N 78.4W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
36HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
____________
This is gonna be a very very interesting evolution of a tropical system into an extratropical. We were discussing it yesterday in detail and it's so interesting our professor said if we guess correctly how much rain falls in ALB NY we'll get some bonus points. I went with 4.5" for kicks and giggles. LOL I look foward to seeing how this plays out.
Anyone else very interested in this storms track and evolution? |
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