Re: Eastern North Carolina Warnings and Reports
Posted by
BobbiStorm on 9/29/2010, 4:09 pm
good discussion out of nws raleigh
A PSEUDO PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT (PRE) IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. RESEARCH FROM U OF ALBANY AND OTHERS SUGGEST THIS IS MOST SIMILAR TO A SOUTHWESTERLY JET PRE ARCH TYPE AND THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATE WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN ON SUNDAY/MONDAY HAS RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NC COASTAL REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC SUGGEST A COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE RESULTING IN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. NWP GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT BUT STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS NORTH OF NICOLE OFF THE NE FL AND GA COAST THIS EVENING. BOTH OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AKA AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. RECENT SREF AND GFS RUNS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE PW VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW - INGREDIENTS NOTED BY GRUM AND OTHERS FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENTS.
LOTS OF MECHANISM TO GENERATE VERTICAL ASCENT TONIGHT WITH A DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS AL/GA...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110 KT JET ALOFT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL E/SE FLOW RIDING UP AN OVER A MORE STABLE SFC BASED LAYER AS WELL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING NEAR THE W ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LARGELY BE DICTATED BY THE LOCATION OF THE COASTAL FRONT WHICH WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AND THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPMENT SFC LOW. IN GENERAL THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL NEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. |
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In this thread:
Eastern North Carolina Warnings and Reports -
Tim_NC,
9/29/2010, 8:15 am- Re: Eastern North Carolina Warnings and Reports - grnpnd7, 9/29/2010, 11:56 pm
- Getting a Lot of Notices - Tim_NC, 9/29/2010, 5:54 pm
- Re: Eastern North Carolina Warnings and Reports - BobbiStorm, 9/29/2010, 4:09 pm
- Flash Flood Warning - Tim_NC, 9/29/2010, 1:26 pm
- Re: Eastern North Carolina Warnings and Reports - BobbiStorm, 9/29/2010, 9:28 am
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