Mark Sudduth's view
Posted by
CypressTX on 10/12/2010, 12:11 pm
from HurricaneTrack
UPDATED: 10:25 am EDT, October 12, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me
HURRICANE PAULA A PROBLEM BUT NOT A MAJOR DISASTER- SO FAR
Once again, it appears that luck will be on our side and this time I mean the Yucatan as well as the U.S. It looks as though Paula will not have a lot of time to strengthen before quite negative conditions move in and take out the ninth hurricane of the season. None the less, the hurricane is a problem, obviously, but this is not the vicious beast that Wilma was in 2005 which impacted the Yucatan. As it stands now, Paula is a category one hurricane and is not very large in size. This should keep the worst of the weather off the coast assuming that the center does not make landfall. I do not want to downplay the situation but considering past hurricanes that have visited this region, Paula is not too bad. I think the weather will clear for the resort areas in just a few days as even the remnants of Paula should move east and then south over the western Caribbean Sea.
Beyond the next week or so, it might be that we have to deal with the ghost of Paula or another system entirely. The GFS model in particular, which has done a fairly good job at sniffing out development this season (not perfect but still quite reliable overall), is indicating one more tropical cyclone forming within the next ten days in the area where Paula's genesis took place. This is something to watch since this time of year favors the western Caribbean. We have come a long way with nine hurricanes forming and not one having a major impact on the U.S. I think the odds favor a no-hit season but we do have perhaps one more window here where things could get interesting for Florida especially. I don't think it will be Paula, not now anyway, but rather another system later next week. I'll have more here early this evening. |
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