| 5 Day Track (NHC discussion still emphasizes that the track beyond 48 hours is "highly uncertain"): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204414.shtml?5day?large#contents --------------------------------------------- HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 ...HURRICANE PAULA...WITH 100 MPH WINDS...HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL * THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...BUT A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BERG --------------------------------------------- HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN MONITORING PAULA AND RECENTLY MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EARLIER SFMR WINDS RANGED BETWEEN 85 TO 90 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN EYE OF 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY NEAR 981 MB FOR THE PAST TWO FIXES...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE 5.0...OR 90 KNOTS...ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS. PAULA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. THE SHEAR AND THE TERRAIN WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...PAULA WILL ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WESTERN CUBA. NOW THAT PAULA IS STRONGER...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND THAT IS PERHAPS THE REASON WHY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRACK IN THE LATEST RUNS. IN PREVIOUS RUNS..MODELS KEPT A SHALLOW CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 19.2N 86.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 20.3N 86.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 21.5N 86.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 22.0N 85.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 22.5N 83.5W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.5N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 79.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 78.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |