| TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 75.2W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING MAYAGUANA AND THE INAGUAS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY... MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ------------------------------------------ TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS STILL NOT QUITE ALIGNED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THEY HAVE MOVED CLOSER TOGETHER DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...AND A 2219 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE BANDING THAN THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS NEAR THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR MAXIMA REPORTED BY NOAA. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF TOMAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE MODELS THAT DO NOT MOVE TOMAS OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF HAITI MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO SHOWS A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS MODEL WAS TOO HIGH YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BURNED US BEFORE BY DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...I AM INCLINED TO RAISE THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT TO HURRICANE STATUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW A COMPOSITE OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 330/5...THOUGH THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL WITH THE NHC INITIAL POSITION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TOMAS IS STEERING THE STORM FOR NOW...BUT A RATHER STRONG DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW...AND THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. TOMAS SHOULD BE ACCELERATING AS IT PASSES NEAR HAITI AS THE MID-LATITUDE LOW APPROACHES. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST WITH THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS STILL FOCUSED ON A TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL LEAVE TOMAS BEHIND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AT THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL... FLOODING...AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.4N 75.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 16.1N 75.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.4N 75.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 74.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 72.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 24.0N 70.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 25.0N 68.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |