Last Advisory Written
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 11/7/2010, 4:11 pm
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 69.1W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TOMAS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN






-------------------------------------






TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.  COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/2100Z 26.1N  69.1W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12HR VT     08/0600Z 26.3N  67.9W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT     08/1800Z 26.8N  65.6W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT     09/0600Z 28.4N  62.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT     09/1800Z 30.6N  60.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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Will Tommy ever die? - ricksterpr, 11/5/2010, 4:36 pm
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