Last Advisory Written
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/7/2010, 4:11 pm
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 69.1W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TOMAS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
-------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION... AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 26.1N 69.1W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12HR VT 08/0600Z 26.3N 67.9W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 08/1800Z 26.8N 65.6W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 09/0600Z 28.4N 62.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.6N 60.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN |
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In this thread:
Will Tommy ever die? -
ricksterpr,
11/5/2010, 4:36 pm- Last Advisory Written - Chris in Tampa, 11/7/2010, 4:11 pm
- Re: Will Tommy ever die? - BobbiStorm, 11/7/2010, 12:29 am
- 18Z Ensemble - JAC, 11/5/2010, 10:00 pm
- 18Z Ensemble - JAC, 11/5/2010, 8:58 pm
- Re: Will Tommy ever die? - JAC, 11/5/2010, 8:50 pm
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