Re: question on CURRENT US Sat....what is with that West to East Orientation
Posted by
Skip Wiley on 1/23/2011, 8:15 pm
Something big may to about to pop in Florida with severe WX...
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND ERN GULF COAST STATES... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SPREADING QUICKLY EWD INTO FL...AL AND GA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WELL-DEFINED COUPLET OF THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FIRST BEING MOISTURE RETURN. DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S F. ALTHOUGH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH 60 F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS KEEP INSTABILITY IN FLORIDA WEAK SUGGESTING THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS EVENT. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THE MOIST AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. A MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW USING THE SREF ENSEMBLE. THE NAM IS THE MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER AND LESS FAVORABLE. A SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OFF THE COAST OF GA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT INLAND. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF COAST STATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE SCENARIO.
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