| I'm probably going to comment after I think about it some. I also think they could have handled some instances better where they changed the percentage rapidly, but they try hard in that regard to get it right so I guess I don't have any constructive criticism on that. They at least need to always have "Near 0%" at the very least. Sometimes part will say "0%". I see a few different ways to go possibly... "10%" and then "Less than 10%" "20%" and then as the lowest category have "10% or less" But the problem is they round. If the percent might be around 14% (getting precise I know), it would fall into the lowest categories I suggest above and going by increments of 5% for example would be a bad idea because it kind of indicates a precision that isn't there yet in forecasting abilities. They could do away with "Near 0%" completely I guess. Have "10%" be the lowest and anything lower is not worth mentioning. However, I know sometimes they like to mention areas that really have no chance but are worthy of a mention due to the significant flooding concerns. While it is not their job to do the job of national weather services in other countries it does give some more visibility to the threat that may be worth keeping something that indicates pretty much no chance but allows them to draw a yellow circle just to highlight flooding concerns. I guess they could if they say "Less than 10%" or "10% or less". I guess they could even go with "10%" for areas like that even if there really is no reasonable chance of formation. I do see one problem though with highlighting such areas like that. Whether it is "Near 0%" or even "10%" it doesn't give the impression of something being that menacing anyway. If it is a flood threat giving a percentage to it may be negative in that some people might think less of it because it has a low percentage. I don't know, but I do know I don't envy the National Hurricane Center on this one. The percentages simply have issues without a good solution either way. I do like percentages to see what the NHC thinks which you can tell when they increase or decrease the percentages within the three color levels. Previously you would not know if they were increasing or decreasing the chances within each color range. But, while I like knowing that, the obsession of the media with making a big deal out of it sometimes is a bit problematic. It's good info to get to meteorologists and nerds like us, but then it gets to people who may get the wrong idea from it. I definitely need to think about it more. |