A huge aurora at only 10% chance - whats up with that?
Posted by JAC on 2/1/2011, 12:04 pm
According to the official forecast, the odds of geomagnetic activity on Jan. 31st were less than 10%.

That was good enough for Kjetil Skogli of Troms, Norway.

"We went out to look in spite of the low expectations--and there it was!" An aurora-burst was in progress directly overhead:

The unexpected display was caused by a disturbance in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth.

The IMF tilted south, opening a hole in Earth's magnetosphere.

Solar wind poured in and ignited the auroras.

More auroras are in the offing.

A solar wind stream is heading for Earth, due to arrive on Feb. 2nd and 3rd.

NOAA forecasters peg the chances of geomagnetic activity on those dates at 20% to 35%--much better odds than Skogli had.

High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.






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A huge aurora at only 10% chance - whats up with that? - JAC, 2/1/2011, 12:04 pm
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