Re: 12z EUR0 MODEL FEB 4 RUN
Posted by JAC on 2/4/2011, 2:10 pm
That would be amazing if they really get 10 to 12" in north MS and AL and around Chattanooga.

I am with AgrosyTN, and am sick of this.

I slipped on the ice yesterday and had a bad headache last night and this morning.

Ice was so thick, even my hard head couldn't crack it.

Records are being set all over.

To tell you the truth, I am not convinced this is part of a normal, natural cycle.

I think man has screwed with the environment too much and we are in for big trouble.








PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
857 AM EST FRI FEB 04 2011

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 08 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 11 2011

UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK FEATURES BUILDING RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST AND THE QUASI STATIONARY POLAR VORTEX NORTH OF HUDSON
BAY...WITH A DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE MEAN TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD
ALONG 110W MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE
TYPICALLY FAST GFS/GEFS MEAN OUTPACING THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF
MEAN LATER IN THE FORECAST. THE 00Z/04 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS
CLEARLY SHOW THE TWO CAMPS OF THOUGHT. THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN
DECIDEDLY FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF CAMP OF SOLUTIONS WITH A SLOWER
TROUGH PROGRESSION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED-THU WHICH HAS
BIG IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST DOWNSTREAM. THE 00Z/04 GFS SETS UP
QUITE AN I-95 SNOWSTORM FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS MEAN...BUT THINGS MUST COME TOGETHER FOR
THAT TO HAPPEN. THE 06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS IS WEAKER WITH ITS
POTENTIAL SNOWSTORM THAN ITS  PRECEDING 00Z RUN BUT HAS THE SAME
GENERAL IDEA OF THE PAST 3 GFS RUNS. WE WILL SIDE WITH THE GREATER
CONSENSUS AROUND THE 00Z/04 ECMWF AND 12Z/04 ECMWF RUNS FOR
NOW...WHICH STILL ADVERTISE A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLONE THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. ENOUGH SPREAD EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLES TO
PRECLUDE SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.


FRACASSO/FLOOD


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12z EUR0 MODEL FEB 4 RUN - Shalista, 2/4/2011, 1:36 pm
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