Scientists warn of $2,000bn solar Katrina
Posted by
JAC on 2/21/2011, 8:17 am
20 February 2011, by Clive Cookson in Washington (The Financial Times)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67444b2c-3d13-11e0-bbff-00144feabdc0.html
Excerpt:
The sun is waking up from a long quiet spell. Last week it sent out the strongest flare for four years - and scientists are warning that earth should prepare for an intense electromagnetic storm that, in the worst case, could be a "global Katrina" costing the world economy $2,000bn.
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Last week's solar storm may have been the biggest since 2007, but it was relatively small in historical terms.
It caused some radio communications problems and minor disruption of civil aviation as airlines routed flights away from the polar regions, said Dr Lubchenco.
A more extreme storm can shut down communications satellites for many hours - or even cause permanent damage to their components. On the ground, the intense magnetic fluctuations can induce surges in power lines, leading to grid failures such as the one that blacked out the whole of Quebec in 1989.
The 11-year cycle of solar activity is quite variable and the present one is running late, with the next maximum expected in 2013.
The peak was not expected to be very strong but that should not cause complacency, said Tom Bogdan, director of the US Space Weather Prediction Center.
The most intense solar storm on record, which ruined much of the world's newly installed telegraph network in 1859, took place during an otherwise weak cycle. An 1859-type storm today could knock out the world's information, communications and electricity distribution systems, at a cost estimated by the US government at $2,000bn.
In terms of terrestrial vulnerability, the biggest change since the 2000 peak is that the world has become more dependent on global positioning system satellites - and not just for navigation. The world's mobile phone networks depend on ultra-precise GPS time signals for their co-ordination. |
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