Re: Could be a big snowstorm inland!!
Posted by Fred on 3/29/2011, 6:35 pm
NWS Upton disco

12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A CONSENSUS...DEVELOPING
DEEP LOW PRES SOMEWHERE S OF LI THU NIGHT AND TRACKING THE FEATURE
NEWD OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRI. ALPS SHOWS A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE SREF ENSEMBLES. GFS ENSEMBLES PROG
A MORE MERIDIONAL SOLN...WHILE THE SREF IS FLATTER. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
IS SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET. THE
FCST IS THEREFORE BASED ON A DEEP LOW IMPACTING THE CWA THU NIGHT
AND FRI.

FROM THERE...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE EXACT TRACK. RELATIVE TO MONTAUK
AT 12Z FRI...SOLNS RANGE FROM ABOUT 100 MILES S PER THE 12Z ECMWF TO
270 MILES SSE PER THE GEM. THE GFS IS 135 SE. THE CLOSER TO THE
COAST TRACK WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN STORM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE
ERN TRACKS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW...FCST INDICATES MAINLY
RASN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW
ACROSS NWRN ZONES.

IN ADDITION TO THE PCPN...WIND WILL BE A SERIOUS ISSUE IF THE STORM
EVOLVES AS PROGGED. BL WINDS CRANK UP TO ABOUT 50KT. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN 60 MPH NE WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE LOW...BACKING TO THE NNW
AS THE LOW PASSES.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Possible Nor'easter end of next week?? - Fred, 3/26/2011, 5:40 pm
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