East KS, West MO under the gun
Posted by JAC on 4/3/2011, 8:15 am



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1258 AM CDT SUN APR 03 2011
 
  VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND NW
  MO...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO
  VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...WRN OZARKS AND WRN GREAT
  LAKES...
 
  ...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FROM ERN KS NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO
  WRN AND NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
 
  ...MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL
  ROCKIES TODAY. WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A POWERFUL 65 TO 80 KT
  LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND LOWER OH
  VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY TRANSPORT
  MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH SFC
  DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S F FROM ERN KS NEWD TO WRN
  IL. THE MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
  ACROSS A BROAD AREA AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. AS THE
  CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG
  THE FRONT...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE
  WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
 
  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SUGGEST THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
  LOCATED IN ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
  REACH THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEP
  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO NOSE INTO ERN KS AND NW MO
  WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
  LIKELY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
  LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN KS AND NW MO WHERE A MODERATE RISK
  AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
  MORE DOMINATE SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
  BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER-ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT
  MAY BE GREATEST NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN AND NRN IL WHERE THE
  STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. IF DISCRETE
  ROTATING STORMS CAN PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHEN THE
  LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THEN AN ISOLATED STRONG
  TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 60 TO
  70 KT AND BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...WIND
  DAMAGE COULD BE WIDESPREAD FROM ERN KS NEWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO NW IL
  ESPECIALLY IF A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPS
  DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
 
  ...SRN PLAINS/WRN OZARKS...
  MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
  AS THE SRN END OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
  REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
  FROM CNTRL AND NORTH TX EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK WHERE
  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. IN SPITE OF
  THE INSTABILITY...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
  FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
  DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE STORMS IN NE OK AND NW
  AR DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH STORMS EXPANDING SWWD ALONG A COLD
  FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP
  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
  SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AFTER
  MIDNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR SWWD ACROSS
  CNTRL AND NORTH TX AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
  NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND NORTH TX AT 09Z TO 12Z
  SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND
  DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT.
 
  ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/03/2011
 
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Sunday: possible severe outbreak. Strong tornadoes OK & N TX - JAC, 4/2/2011, 8:47 am
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