NE TX & AR
Posted by JAC on 4/4/2011, 5:56 am


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0300 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL THROUGH NE TX...EXTREME SERN
  OK...SWRN/CENTRAL AR.
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 040800Z - 041030Z
 
  AS OF 730Z...ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING AND
  INCREASING IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT OVER SERN OK AND OVER
  PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX NEAR SEP.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
  OCCUR WWD TOWARD ABI AND OVER REMAINDER DISCUSSION AREA.  MAIN
  CONCERN WILL BE HAIL...ALTHOUGH STG/DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
  OUT.  SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WITH ATTENDANT GUST/TORNADO
  THREAT...MAY INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE...INFLUENCING PROBABILITIES IN
  ANY POTENTIAL WW THAT WOULD COVER THAT TIME FRAME.
 
  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD 30-40 KT ACROSS
  S-CENTRAL/SERN OK AND W TX...EVIDENT AT 730Z FROM MKO...ADM...25 N
  DYS...55 N MAF.  QUASISTATIONARY DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED 80 S FST...40
  N SJT...TO FRONTAL INTERSECTION 25 N DYS.  COLD FRONT SHOULD
  CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE DRYLINE FROM N-S...WHILE DRYLINE FORMS
  EFFECTIVE WRN BOUND FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
  SPECIFIC FOCI FOR INITIATION NEAR SEP AND OVER SERN OK ARE NEBULOUS
  AT BEST...GIVEN STG MLCINH...LACK OF SFC BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF FRONT
  AND DRYLINE...AND NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ABOVE
  SFC.  WEAKLY ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVING BUT SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT 850-MB
  WINDS ARE EVIDENT OVER REGION...BASED ON STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OF
  PLANAR VWP/PROFILER DATA.  ACTIVITY OVER SEP AREA IS MOVING NEWD
  TOWARD DFW METROPLEX IN REGIME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
  SUPPORTING MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG...WITH ABOUT 35-40 KT CLOUD-LAYER
  SHEAR ESTIMATED FROM RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS.  VERY UNSTABLE
  CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT NEWD TO EXTREME SWRN AR...OFFERING AT LEAST
  SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING TO SVR LEVELS OF
  ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA AS WELL.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES PACE OF
  FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION NEXT 2-3
  HOURS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL INITIATION FROM HERE
  SWWD OVER CENTRAL TX TO FILL IN GREATER TSTM COVERAGE.  DRYING ABOVE
  BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF
  STG-DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS THROUGH RELATIVELY STABLE/NEAR-SFC LAYER AS
  WELL AS HAIL.  MLCINH MAY ERODE CONSIDERABLY AFTER ABOUT
  11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER ARKLATEX REGION INTO CENTRAL AR.
 
  ..EDWARDS.. 04/04/2011
 
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MS & W TN Under the Gun Today - JAC, 4/4/2011, 5:54 am
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