Right now Chicago & Indy
Posted by JAC on 4/5/2011, 4:18 pm
Strong Lifted Index uncapped.

However, models may shift in the next few days.

Will know a lot more when it gets into NAM and SREF forecast time range which should be Thursday 00Z runs.

Detroit NWS is forecasting a negative tilt.








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SHOW THOUGH WILL BE ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A VERY POTENT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 100 PLUS KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT EVENING.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS SPRING...THIS ONE WILL
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS WELL AS DYNAMICS. HIGHS WILL
BE TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

SATURDAY WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD DRY THE
AREA OUT FOR A SHORT WHILE. THE NEXT STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POSITIONED UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
SUNDAY OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DRAWS NEAR. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY ON MONDAY. GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.




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Next Round Severe Weather Sunday April 10 - JAC, 4/5/2011, 1:45 pm
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