Re: Bombing Friday Morning
Posted by JAC on 4/12/2011, 8:33 am



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0359 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2011
 
  VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
 
  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A
  NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE MODELS
  MOVE THE LOW ENEWD WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
  GFS. THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WOULD SEEM THE BEST DUE TO THE
  TENDENCY OF CLOSED-OFF LOWS TO BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. AHEAD OF
  THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF FORECASTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ALONG A
  MOIST AXIS IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON/DAY 4 WHERE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING MODERATE
  INSTABILITY. HAVE OUTLOOKED A SEVERE THREAT AREA IN ERN MS...AL AND
  MIDDLE TN. THE ECMWF MOVES THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE WRN GREAT
  LAKES REGION SATURDAY/DAY 5 WITH A POWERFUL LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN
  THE ERN STATES. A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN AND
  CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS INTO THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
  SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR A THREAT AREA. BY EARLY
  NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN
  STATES BY MONDAY/DAY 7. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COULD BE STRONG IN
  THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN A POTENTIAL FOR
  SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT IN THE
  TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAKING UNCERTAINTY
  HIGH THIS LATE IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 04/12/2011

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Eyeing a TX Hooker for the Weekend - JAC, 4/11/2011, 1:25 pm
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