Potential for Big Outbreak Wednesday TN, KY, N AL & N GA
Posted by JAC on 4/26/2011, 6:48 am
Classic Texas Hooker digging deep into midwest with strong negative tilt shortwave developing thru the day Wednesday.

Good GOM feed.

Looks potent.






DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
 
  VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
  KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
  MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST
  GEORGIA...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
  REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  A LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO
  MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY EWD PROGRESS THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SPEED
  MAX FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SHIFT ACROSS THE
  MID SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME.
 
  AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
  VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A
  TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER
  MS VALLEYS.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
  APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN
  CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
  WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.  
 
  ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
  ***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
  INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
  THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***
 
  SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
  PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING
  ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
  WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE
  EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE
  QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS
  SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE
  MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.
 
  HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF
  THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY
  CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM
  DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
  STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
  KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
  VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THIS -- COMBINED WITH
  FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
  SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
  THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
   ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
  TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
  WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
  THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
  FRONT.
 
  OVERNIGHT...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH STORMS MAY
  BECOME MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS IT MOVES TO --
  AND POSSIBLY ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS.  EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
  DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...GIVEN THE
  OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM.
 
  ..GOSS.. 04/26/2011
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Potential for Big Outbreak Wednesday TN, KY, N AL & N GA - JAC, 4/26/2011, 6:48 am
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