CaneTalk: Strong ascent from high CAPE air and shear should keep convection firing.

Strong ascent from high CAPE air and shear should keep convection firing.

Posted by JAC on 5/31/2011, 7:10 am

This should support continuous latent heating of the upper troposphere which will, down the road, aid in lifting the tropopause.

That in turn should allow an anticyclone to form in a few days over the water and convection.

Bottom line effect will be a drop in shear toward the end of the week as shown in the 108hr GFS shear forecast,

In-coming trop waves, during this period, could aid in boundary layer convergence into this area and IMHO there is a good chance a weak tropical surface low could spin up.

In this thread:

Keep an eye on Mid Carib mid next week - JAC, 5/26/2011, 8:06 am

Yellow Box - JAC, 6/1/2011, 1:58 pm
Broad Juice-Loop Roll. - JAC, 6/1/2011, 5:48 am
Did about as well as I would have expected this afternoon - JAC, 5/31/2011, 4:37 pm
12Z takes it down to 1001mb - JAC, 5/31/2011, 4:24 pm
12Z CMC shows more active development - JAC, 5/31/2011, 2:21 pm
- Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - CX, 5/31/2011, 2:22 pm
  - Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - JAC, 5/31/2011, 2:33 pm
    - Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - CX, 5/31/2011, 2:39 pm
      - Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - JAC, 5/31/2011, 2:51 pm
        Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - freesong, 5/31/2011, 3:21 pm
        Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - JAC, 5/31/2011, 3:56 pm
        feels like AUGUST in NC - freesong, 5/31/2011, 8:26 pm
        Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - CX, 5/31/2011, 3:57 pm
        Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - JAC, 5/31/2011, 3:59 pm
        Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - CX, 5/31/2011, 4:05 pm
        Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - JAC, 5/31/2011, 4:08 pm
        Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - CX, 5/31/2011, 4:10 pm
        Re: 12Z CMC shows more active development - CX, 5/31/2011, 2:52 pm
High Rain-Rate Hot-Towers firing North of Panama - JAC, 5/31/2011, 6:53 am
- Re: High Rain-Rate Hot-Towers firing North of Panama - JAC, 5/31/2011, 9:40 am
- Strong ascent from high CAPE air and shear should keep convection firing. - JAC, 5/31/2011, 7:10 am
  - Re: Strong ascent from high CAPE air and shear should keep convection firing. - JAC, 5/31/2011, 7:51 am
- Re: High Rain-Rate Hot-Towers firing North of Panama - JAC, 5/31/2011, 6:57 am
Re: Keep an eye on Mid Carib mid next week - tracker, 5/29/2011, 7:05 pm
Re: Keep an eye on Mid Carib mid next week - jotay3, 5/29/2011, 4:38 pm
- Re: Keep an eye on Mid Carib mid next week - HURRICANEHIRAM, 5/29/2011, 6:10 pm
Sunday NHC Discussion - JAC, 5/29/2011, 7:11 am
On Track - JAC, 5/29/2011, 6:02 am
- GFS spins it borderline Tuesday. CMC on board a day later. EURO tracks it to Gitmo. - JAC, 5/29/2011, 6:08 am
12Z GFS - JAC, 5/26/2011, 2:06 pm
- Euro hinting too - JAC, 5/26/2011, 4:33 pm
  - Re: Euro hinting too - tracker, 5/27/2011, 4:03 pm

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