| THE RAPID WEAKENING OF ADRIAN CONTINUES AS THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS DEVOLVING TOWARD A SHEAR PATTERN. THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UNEXPECTEDLY EARLY INCREASE OF VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS. WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUES BOTH ARE RULE-CONSTRAINED TO INDICATE HURRICANE INTENSITY...THE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE MUCH WEAKER. A BLEND OF THESE ARE THE BASIS FOR THE 60 KT INTENSITY AT ADVISORY TIME...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. WITH ADRIAN DROPPING FROM A 115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN JUST 24 HOURS... THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF EXTREME RAPID FILLING FOR A CYCLONE OVER WATER. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO STRONG SHEAR...ADRIAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ADRIAN IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF CALIFORNIA MAY ACT TO TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...ONCE THE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS GONE FROM THIS SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TO BAM-SHALLOW THEREAFTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK PREDICTION WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.8N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 16.0N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 16.5N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 18.0N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA |