Houston NWS Discussion
Posted by
JAC on 7/27/2011, 7:40 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
BUT THE MAIN TOPIC OF DISCUSSION IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. IR SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT
WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. NHC GIVES THIS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
T.D. BUT THINK THE ODDS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ON ITS WAY TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AIRCRAFT RECON WILL FLY INTO THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND DATA WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE STATUS OF
THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM IS OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST BECAUSE QUITE A FEW OF THE TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCES
BRING THE SYSTEM TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE NAM/GFS SEEM TO BRING THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE TX COAST AS WELL. FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD
HELP WITH THE TRACK FORECAST AS THEY WILL BENEFIT FROM A MORE
DEVELOPED SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLE WEAK
SYSTEMS RATHER POORLY. THAT SAID A MORE NW TRACK MAKES MORE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
THU NIGHT. RIDGES AT 700/850MB WILL ALSO BE LOCATED IN THIS
GENERAL AREA WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH TX. GIVEN
THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...THINK THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW WILL TRACK
AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TX COAST. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. RIGHT NOW THE
SYSTEM HAS WARM WATERS TO PASS THROUGH IN THE NW CARIB AND S
GULF. SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE WEAK BUT AS NOTED IN UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM/GFS TO WEAKEN SOME BUT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH EFFECT THE SHEAR HAS ON THE SYSTEM AND ITS INTENSITY.
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In this thread:
Cherry Bomb into the GOM -
JAC,
7/27/2011, 6:17 am- Re: Cherry Bomb into the GOM - Will_TX, 7/27/2011, 11:47 am
- Recon goes at 11:30 EDT - JAC, 7/27/2011, 11:18 am
- Kicked up a notch - JAC, 7/27/2011, 7:47 am
- Houston NWS Discussion - JAC, 7/27/2011, 7:40 am
- Well defined mid-level PV anomaly - JAC, 7/27/2011, 7:20 am
- New Hot-Tower Firing Up - JAC, 7/27/2011, 6:31 am
- TC Formation Alert Posted - JAC, 7/27/2011, 6:26 am
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