90L /TD Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 7/27/2011, 12:00 pm
I don't see any reasoning for this to ramp up quickly. Visible imagery shows that half of the LLC is exposed due to northerly shear and convection firing on its southern half. In addition, the center will be passing over a shallow area of low OHC off the Yucatan coast which should further hinder intensification.
Overall we don't have a very well organized system as per cloud structure and low level inflow remains weak. Furthermore, vertical stacking is lacking height as the 500mb vorticity is displaced to the east of the 850-700mb which have not strengthened much over the last 24hrs. I think we will have a TD or minimal TS heading towards the NW GOM. However, due to its small core any further increase in shear could disrupt the LLC and open this back to a wave with strong winds gusts and squalls. Lets see have it handles the current pattern!! |
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