Don Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 7/28/2011, 12:04 pm
Don continues to have a poor cloud structure due to N- NE wind shear. This has caused the northern half of LLC to become exposed. The upper air environment is just not favorable for Don to increase much more than its current minimal status. In addition, arcing outflow moving away from the center not only disrupts the circulation, but is a sign of an anemic system.
There are several factors that will hinder any major increase in strength through landfall.
Increase in forward speed will further aid in the separation of the convection from the LLC.
N-NE shear will pull convection away from the center.
No upper level anti-cyclone, will not allow ventilation of the cyclone's low level inflow.
Small size will expose the system to large scale atmospheric conditions. Size reduces low level inflow, thus less ability to pull latent heat from the warm waters.
Don has maintained status or increase some due to being in a small area of marginally favorable conditions and convective firing. A divergent upper flow and moderately strong 850-500mb vorticity is helping ascent.
Finally, Don will struggle till landfall to gather under a non- conducive environment and remain not more than a miminal TS max winds 40-50mph with gusts!! |
125
In this thread:
Don Analysis - Jake, 7/28/2011, 12:04 pm Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.