PREDICT Synopsis
Posted by JAC on 7/28/2011, 4:51 pm
SYNOPSIS 2011072800

P10L
13N, 31W
700 hPa


ECMWF:  Relatively smooth west-northwest track of a distinct pouch.

GFS:  Beginning to lose its "ITCZ excitation" storyline.  Although the pouch initially tracks south of west with a slight weakening, the evidence for an ITCZ excitation is not so obvious.  P10L is a large, distinct pouch that then moves west-northwest and actually strengthens slightly as it enters the Caribbean.

UKMET:  Except for a early "dip" to the south, the track is to the west-northwest with gradual intensification.

NOGAPS:  Slower than other models, but NOGAPS still maintains a distinct pouch to 120 hours.

ECMWF   -7.0 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
GFS     -8.0 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
UKMET  -8.6 v700 & RH 120h
NOGAPS  -6.0 v700 & RH 120h
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Back on Track? - ricksterpr, 7/28/2011, 4:46 pm
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