91 L morning Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 7/30/2011, 9:52 am
A strong tropical wave / low is located near 10N - 46W. Scattered / numerous convection is associated with cyclonic turning and a stacked vorticity in the 850-700mb level. However, the 500mb vort is lagging behind. The upper air environment somewhat favorable for slow strengthening as E shear 15kts 200-400mb level and mid level dry layer is expansive north of the disturbance. However, as the systems moves west the environment will gradually become more favorable.
The disturbance is embedded in the monsoon trough and this will maitain a nice supply of deep layer moisture inflow. The OHC is minimal,but increases substantially passed 50w. As usual, convection will increase as latent heat values rise in the planetary boundary layer. Core values are slowly warming in the mid levels.
This system is well organized and has the potential to become our next TC. However, it appears that the low level circulation is on the southside of the convective complex and easterly shear although not distructive, is hindering as well as the large dry mid layer air to the north. But, not enough from keeping this form strengthening, all be it slow!!!
(Rick and Hiram in PR Keep and eye on this system) |
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91 L morning Analysis - Jake, 7/30/2011, 9:52 am Post A Reply
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