91L / TD -5
Posted by
Jake on 7/31/2011, 3:05 pm
The strong tropical wave / low is located near 13N - 54W. Scattered / numerous convection is associated with cyclonic turning with some banding. The vorticity in the 850-700mb level has become elongated from east-west and the 500mb vort is lagging behind and has weakend. The upper air environment is a bit less favorable since this time yesterday as the center was over ran the center of the upper high. This has E shear 15-20kts 200-400mb level and mid level dry layer remains expansive north of the disturbance. However, as the systems moves west the environment will gradually become more favorable.
The disturbance is showing arcing outflows which is an indication that dry air has worked into the system. The OHC has increased substantially and will remain a positive along its track.
The system is well organized and has the potential to become our next TC at anytime. However, the low level circulation is lacking strong convection and easterly shear is hindering as well as the entrained dry air.
Finally, hurricane hunters should fined a closed circulation to classify it as TD-5. Now that we have a more established system, the diurnal pulse will give this a nice boost tonight. Slow strengthening is in line and Emily will be born from 91L. Track should be a bit more west or just south of PR..
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