From NWS MIAMI
Posted by
canetrakker on 7/31/2011, 5:57 pm
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE WEATHER FOR THE SERVICE AREA WILL ALL DEPEND
ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE LOW SOME 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IT`S STRUGGLING TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION.
SHOULD IT REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOP SLOWLY...THEN A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WOULD OCCUR. DESPITE THE MODEL CONSENSUS THE PAST
FEW DAYS OF TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...MANY SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GFS TRENDED
FURTHER WEST WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN BAHAMIAN
CHAIN...AND THE 31.00Z GFDL RUN EVEN TOOK THE SYSTEM OVER
HISPANIOLA TO OFF OF THE NE COAST OF CUBA...EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN
THE LATEST GFS RUN. A CASE OF NON- DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE A BROAD
LOW TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIB. SO THE POINT IS THERE
REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IS THE CASE WITH
DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. |
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