If it makes it to 60w without recurving,good chance it will hit land somewhere in the basin.
Research I did a year or 2 ago on Sotms that reached Tropical Storm before 40w and made it 60w without recurving.Here is what I came up with
Storms that were named before 40w and made it to 60w with out recurving(1900-present)
YEAR STROM REACHED TS AT LANDFALL WHERE 1915----- Storm #2---------------29.6w----------------------YES------------Carri,Hati,Jamaica,TX 1928----- Storm #4 ------------- 20.4w----------------------YES------------Carri,PR,Bah,Fla 1938----- Storm #4---------------21.5w----------------------YES------------Long Island 1947----- Storm #4---------------20.1w----------------------YES------------Bahamas,Florida 1948----- Storm #6 --------------19.7w-----------------------NO--------------X 1953----- Carol --------------------37.7w----------------------YES------------Maine 1960----- Donna-------------------26.9w----------------------YES------------Florida,East Coast US 1961----- Esther-------------------36.7w----------------------YES------------Nantucket,Maine 1966----- Faith----------------------28.0w----------------------NO--------------X 1979----- Frederic-----------------36.0w----------------------YES------------Leeward,PR,DR,Cuba,Missi 1981----- Dennis-------------------31.3w----------------------YES-----------Carribean,Jamaica,Cuba,Fla 1985----- Gloria---------------------28.3w---------------------YES------------NC,Long Island 1989----- Hugo----------------------29.2w---------------------YES------------Leeward,PR,SC 1995----- Felix----------------------36.5w----------------------NO--------------X 1995----- Luis-----------------------29.0w----------------------YES------------Nothern Leeward Islands 1996 -----Bertha--------------------39.0w----------------------YES-----------Antigua,NC 1996----- Edouard-----------------31.6w-----------------------NO-------------X 1998----- Goerges-----------------31.3w----------------------YES------------Leeward,PR,DR,Cuba,Miss 1998----- Danielle------------------37.9w----------------------NO--------------X 1999----- Gert-----------------------31.9w----------------------NO--------------X 2003----- Fabian-------------------36.2w----------------------YES------------Bermuda 2004----- Francis------------------39.8w----------------------YES------------Bahamas,Fla 2004----- Ivan-----------------------30.3w----------------------YES------------Grenada,Jamaica,Caymans,Ala 2007----- Dean---------------------38.3w----------------------YES------------Carribean,Yuc,Mexico 2008----- Bertha-------------------24.0w----------------------NO--------------X 2008----- Ike------------------------38.4w----------------------YES------------Cuba,Texas 2009----- Bill------------------------35.2w----------------------YES------------Atlantic Canada 2010----- Danielle-----------------35.1w----------------------NO--------------X 2010----- Earl-----------------------32.2w----------------------YES------------Nova Scotia 2010------Igor---------------------23.5w----------------------YES--------------Bermuda,New Foundland
Storms that were named before 40w and made it to 60w with out recurving(1900-present) 30 Storms were named before reaching 40w and made it to 60w without recurving. of the 30, 23 made landfall which equals 76.6% of the time a storm that is named before reaching 40w and makes it to 60w without recurving makes landfall some where in the basin
http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/40-60.html |