Re: EURO kicking butt
Posted by
Gianmarc on 9/1/2011, 1:20 pm
Yes, it can--provided that upper-level conditions are favorable enough. Target's info suggests that they may be. And then, yes, put a storm over 90 degree waters with even moderately favorable upper-level dynamics and you've got an Opal on your hands.
I do think too much focus is placed on SSTs though, particularly in pre-season forecasts. Every summer we look at sizzling SST anomalies around the basin and automatically equate that to a very active season, but that simply is not the case. As active a year as we are seeing, just imagine how nuts it might have been already had there not been such an unusual abundance of dry air, to say nothing of all the upper-level lows and accompanying shear we've seen this season. (For instance, it is awfully unusual to see 40 kt shear in the Gulf of Mexico in September.)
We're on the verge of the L & M storms already and yet we've had only two hurricanes. |
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EURO kicking butt -
Zephyr,
9/1/2011, 8:08 am Post A Reply
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