CaneTalk: Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting

Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting

Posted by Gianmarc on 9/6/2011, 6:12 pm

I am so tired of hearing people talk about what was "supposed to be." There is no such thing as something that is "supposed to be" ANYTHING in weather. Forecasts are not crystal balls, and every discussion the NHC ever produces on any storm emphasizes the degrees of uncertainty in their forecast paths and intensities as well as any spread existing in model runs on a given storm. How one can take form that that a storm was "supposed" to do anything with any degree of certainty is beyond me.

Virtually every time a storm has taken a wobble or intensified this season we've had this chorus of people shouting hysterically about how that "was not supposed to happen," as if we have remote controls guiding the direction and intensity of storms both current and future and should any storm dare contradict whatever preconceived notion we had of what a storm was somehow "supposed" to do means we should throw the whole forecast out the window and scare the crap out of everybody with our misguided alarmism. It's inane.

And I have no idea how one comes to the conclusion that this will be the best chance we'll have at "analyzing a cat 4 this year" when the only season in recent memory that had a quicker pace than this one was the monstrous and historic season of 2005. Clearly storms are having no problem developing this year, and with two of the last four storms becoming major hurricanes and the peak of the season still ahead of us, I see absolutely no reason to harbor this notion that Katia will be the season's only cat 4. If anything, what we have seen so far this year suggests precisely the opposite.

I have observed nothing "incredible" about Katia, but I have indeed seen many far more intense storms that have intensified far more rapidly and offered far more fascinating causes for analysis than this one. Call me a "tough crowd."

135

In this thread:

No one wants to talk about the most powerful storm of the year? - weathercritic, 9/5/2011, 10:11 pm

First recon into the storm (as of 2:30PM on 9/6) - Chris in Tampa, 9/6/2011, 2:38 pm
Re: No one wants to talk about the most powerful storm of the year? - canetrakker, 9/6/2011, 1:45 pm
Re: No one wants to talk about the most powerful storm of the year? - Chris in Tampa, 9/5/2011, 10:28 pm
Re: No one wants to talk about the most powerful storm of the year? - weathercritic, 9/5/2011, 10:21 pm
- CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - weathercritic, 9/5/2011, 10:46 pm
  - Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - Gianmarc, 9/5/2011, 11:29 pm
    - Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - TuffyE, 9/6/2011, 6:19 am
    - Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - weathercritic, 9/6/2011, 3:13 am
      - Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - weathercritic, 9/6/2011, 3:24 am
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - Gianmarc, 9/6/2011, 6:12 pm
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - TuffyE, 9/6/2011, 6:24 am
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - chriswx, 9/6/2011, 3:50 am
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - Gianmarc, 9/6/2011, 6:17 pm
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - weathercritic, 9/6/2011, 9:58 pm
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - freesong, 9/6/2011, 10:28 pm
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - Shalista, 9/6/2011, 7:56 am
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - Will_TX, 9/6/2011, 9:31 am
        Re: CAT 4 -- told you it was getting interesting - Shalista, 9/6/2011, 1:07 pm

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